Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
